Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
关税的代价：19世纪末法国保护主义对教育与生育率的影响
The toll of tariffs: The impact of protectionism on education and fertility in late 19th century France
摘要
This paper asks whether macroeconomic policy can affect fertility and education by documenting a slow-down of long-term improvements in these two outcomes in the wake of a major protectionist shock that shielded low-skilled individuals from the adverse consequences of the first wave of globalisation. We build a novel dataset for 19th-century France where, following decades of rising grain imports at low prices, high tariffs on cereal were introduced in 1892, shifting relative prices in favour of agriculture and away from industry. We exploit regional data that allow us to measure differences in the intensity of the protectionist shock and find that the tariff halted the long-term increase in schooling and slowed-down the decline in fertility that were already well underway.
中文摘要
本文通过记录一次重大保护主义冲击后生育率与教育水平长期改善进程的放缓，探讨宏观经济政策能否影响这两项指标。该保护主义政策使低技能劳动者免受第一波全球化浪潮的不利影响。我们构建了19世纪法国的新数据集：在经历数十年低价谷物进口增长后，1892年对谷物征收高额关税，导致相对价格向农业倾斜而偏离工业。通过利用可衡量保护主义冲击强度的区域数据，我们发现该关税政策终止了已持续多年的教育普及化进程，并减缓了生育率的下降趋势。