Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
统计生命年的价值
The value of a statistical life year
摘要
Embedded in the value of a statistical life (VSL) is a stream of valuations of each expected year of life. The value of a statistical life year (VSLY) has a policy-relevant role analogous to the VSL, except that it monetizes risks to short periods of life extension. This article reviews previous studies and reports new labor market estimates of the average VSLY and the variation of these values with age using two methods—inferring the average VSLY based on estimates of the VSL and a new method that provides direct empirical estimates of the valuation of a discounted life year. The direct estimates of the VSLY yield larger values than the constructed estimates. The VSLY based on fatality rates by industry and occupation is $600,000 to $800,000 at a 3% interest rate. Estimates based on age-adjusted fatality rates are somewhat lower. The discount rate used in assessing the VSLY has a pivotal effect on the estimated VSLY. The VSLY is substantially lower in the absence of discounting and more than doubled at a discount rate of 10%. Failure to use a positive discount rate greatly understates the VSLY. The article also reviews previous VSLY studies as well as estimates of the discount rate for years of life expectancy.
中文摘要
统计生命价值（VSL）中蕴含着一系列对每个预期生命年的估值。统计生命年价值（VSLY）具有与VSL类似的政策相关性作用，区别在于它将短时期寿命延长风险货币化。本文回顾了以往研究，并报告了关于平均VSLY及其随年龄变化的新劳动力市场估计，采用了两种方法——基于VSL估计推断平均VSLY，以及一种能够直接对贴现生命年估值进行实证估计的新方法。VSLY的直接估计值大于构建估计值。基于行业和职业死亡率的VSLY在3%利率下为60万至80万美元。基于年龄调整死亡率的估计值略低。评估VSLY时使用的贴现率对估计的VSLY具有关键影响。在不进行贴现时，VSLY大幅降低；而在10%的贴现率下，VSLY增加一倍以上。未使用正贴现率会严重低估VSLY。本文还回顾了以往的VSLY研究以及预期寿命年数贴现率的估计。