Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
控制环境农业育苗在草莓种苗产业中的福利效应
The Welfare Effects of Controlled Environment Agriculture Propagation in the Strawberry Nursery Industry
摘要
Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) propagation has emerged as a potential response to high costs, disease pressure, and the methyl bromide phase-out in CaliforniaÕs strawberry nursery industry. We provide the first ex-ante economic evaluation of its market-wide welfare effects, using a multistage Equilibrium Displacement Model of the strawberry supply chain with quasi-random parameter sampling to estimate gross surplus changes around a post-adoption equilibrium. A reduction in the cost of CEA nursery plants yields economically meaningful gains that are positive in every simulation and grow with adoption, accruing chiefly to consumers and CEA nursery producers while leaving conventional producers roughly unaffected.
中文摘要
受控环境农业（CEA）繁育已成为加利福尼亚州草莓苗圃产业应对高成本、病害压力以及甲基溴淘汰的一种潜在方案。我们首次对其市场范围内的福利效应进行事前经济评估，采用草莓供应链的多阶段均衡位移模型，并结合准随机参数抽样，以估算采纳后均衡附近的总剩余变化。CEA苗圃植株成本的降低带来了具有经济意义的收益，该收益在每一次模拟中均为正，并随采纳程度提高而增长，主要惠及消费者和CEA苗圃生产者，而传统生产者大致不受影响。