Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
时间压力减少金融泡沫：来自预测实验的证据
Time pressure reduces financial bubbles: evidence from a forecasting experiment
摘要
We investigate whether time pressure exacerbates or mitigates bubbles in laboratory experiments. We find that under high time pressure price volatility is lower and market prices are closer to their fundamental value. This is due to participants using simpler adaptive forecasting strategies, instead of the self-reinforcing extrapolative expectations that they use under low time pressure, and which are conducive to the emergence of bubbles. In addition, by substantially increasing the number of decision periods in our experiment, we find that in the long run prices tend to converge to their fundamental value, also in the absence of time pressure.
中文摘要
我们通过实验室实验探究时间压力是加剧还是缓解泡沫现象。研究发现，在高时间压力下，价格波动性更低，市场价格更接近其基础价值。这是因为参与者采用了更简单的适应性预测策略，而非低时间压力下使用的自我强化外推预期——后者正是导致泡沫产生的因素。此外，通过大幅增加实验中的决策周期数，我们发现长期来看，即使没有时间压力，价格也趋于收敛至基础价值。