Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
政府支出对二氧化碳排放的时变影响
Time-varying impacts of government spending on CO2 emissions
摘要
A Bayesian factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression framework purified of expectations is employed to analyze how government spending shocks have impacted CO 2 emissions in the United States from the 1980s to the pre-pandemic period. Consumption-generated emissions are found to have generally risen following fiscal expansions, although their elasticity to government spending has declined substantially over time—with the five-year elasticity dropping from about 0.6 in the early 1980s to around zero by 2019. In contrast, positive government spending shocks increased production-generated emissions in the early 1980s — with a five-year elasticity near 0.5 — but reversed course by the end of the 1980s, eventually reaching an elasticity of −0.7 by the end of the sample. Examination of time-varying interaction variables suggests that environmental regulation, tertiarization, and a larger share of spending on public goods are associated with a mitigation — or even a reversal — of the emissions growth related to economic expansions driven by government spending. The income channel plays a more limited role, mostly confined to the earlier part of the sample. Furthermore, government consumption and investment are both associated with these shifts in emissions elasticities.
中文摘要
本文采用一个剔除预期因素的贝叶斯因子增广交互向量自回归框架，分析20世纪80年代至疫情前美国政府支出冲击如何影响二氧化碳排放。研究发现，财政扩张后，消费产生的排放总体上有所上升，但其对政府支出的弹性随时间显著下降——五年期弹性从20世纪80年代初的约0.6降至2019年的接近零。相比之下，正向政府支出冲击在20世纪80年代初提高了生产产生的排放——五年期弹性接近0.5——但到20世纪80年代末出现逆转，最终在样本末期达到−0.7的弹性。对时变交互变量的考察表明，环境监管、第三产业化和公共品支出占比提高，与政府支出驱动的经济扩张相关排放增长的缓解——甚至逆转——相关联。收入渠道的作用较为有限，主要局限于样本前期。此外，政府消费和政府投资均与这些排放弹性的变化相关。