Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
贸易冲突的溢出效应：不仅限于商品，也波及债券
Trade conflicts spillovers: Not only for goods, but also for bonds
摘要
This paper constructs a measure of firm level tariff exposure and examines how import and export tariff shocks affect the corporate bond financing activities of Chinese listed firms. The results show that import tariffs imposed by the China side systematically raise the financing costs and reduce the issuance amounts of the affected firms, while unexpectedly the export tariffs imposed by the US side have very limited effects. Further evidence based on the responses of credit ratings and secondary market trading confirm that firms exposed to import tariff shocks suffer from a contraction of funds supply. Moreover, firms with higher external finance dependence, lower asset tangibility, more operation volatilities, or less government affiliations are more adversely affected. Meanwhile, the green bonds exhibit greater resilience during trade conflicts. Overall, this study highlights the central role of import tariffs in shaping the financing capacities of the Chinese firms in the bond markets. Our paper shows that how trade conflicts are transmitted to financial market, which might be a source of fluctuations for the financial market and the aggregate economy.
中文摘要
本文构建了企业层面的关税暴露度指标，并考察进出口关税冲击如何影响中国上市公司的公司债融资活动。结果表明，中方加征的进口关税系统性地提高了受影响企业的融资成本并降低了其发行规模，而美方加征的出口关税的影响却出乎意料地十分有限。基于信用评级和二级市场交易反应的进一步证据证实，暴露于进口关税冲击的企业面临资金供给收缩。此外，外部融资依赖度更高、资产有形性更低、经营波动性更大或政府关联更少的企业受到的负面影响更为严重。与此同时，绿色债券在贸易冲突期间表现出更强的韧性。总体而言，本研究凸显了进口关税在塑造中国企业在债券市场融资能力中的核心作用。本文揭示了贸易冲突如何传导至金融市场，这可能成为金融市场和整体经济波动的来源。