Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
全球紧张局势带来的贸易转移效应
Trade Diversion Effects From Global Tensions
摘要
ABSTRACT How do global trade tensions affect third countries? This paper studies whether the 2018 US–China trade tensions generated trade diversion toward Mexico in the United States market. Using a product‐month panel from 2016 to 2020, we show that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods reduced US imports from China and increased imports from Mexico. This trade diversion effect is present along both the extensive margin, through a higher probability of importing from Mexico, and the intensive margin, through larger import values within products that were already traded before the tariff increase. We find that the main effect operates through direct demand reallocation, with limited evidence of short‐run propagation through input–output linkages. Mexico gains more in products where it had lower pre‐shock exposure to the United States market and less in sectors that are more deeply integrated into global value chains.
中文摘要
摘要 全球贸易紧张局势如何影响第三国？本文研究2018年中美贸易紧张局势是否促使美国市场上的贸易转向墨西哥。利用2016年至2020年的产品—月份面板数据，我们发现，美国对中国商品加征更高关税减少了美国自中国的进口，并增加了自墨西哥的进口。这种贸易转向效应同时体现在广延边际和集约边际上：前者表现为从墨西哥进口的概率上升，后者表现为在关税上调前已进行贸易的产品内进口价值增加。我们发现，主要效应通过直接需求再分配发挥作用，而通过投入—产出联系在短期内传导的证据有限。墨西哥在冲击前对美国市场暴露程度较低的产品上获益更多，而在更深地融入全球价值链的部门中获益较少。