Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
贸易、人力资本与收入风险
Trade, Human Capital, and Income Risk,
摘要
In this paper, we study the causal relationship between trade exposure and individual income risk, with emphasis on the role of human capital. We use a rich worker-level longitudinal dataset from Germany spanning the period 1976-2012, and find industry trade exposure to be causally related to income risk: Imports increase risk and exports decrease risk in an economically significant manner. Importantly, there is a complex interplay between human capital and the linkage between trade and risk: On average, individuals with higher levels of industry- or occupation-specific human capital experience lower risk. However, an increase in industry net imports increases risk more for workers with higher levels of industry tenure. Although net imports are also associated with declines in the mean income of these workers, the estimated effect on income levels is economically small. Our welfare framework, which jointly considers both mean income and income risk, shows that the welfare consequences of trade exposure are quantitatively dominated by the risk channel.
中文摘要
本文研究贸易暴露与个人收入风险之间的因果关系，重点关注人力资本的作用。我们使用来自德国1976—2012年间的丰富劳动者层面纵向数据集，发现行业贸易暴露与收入风险存在因果关系：进口以经济上显著的方式增加风险，出口则降低风险。重要的是，人力资本与贸易和风险之间的联系之间存在复杂的相互作用：平均而言，拥有更高行业专用性或职业专用性人力资本的个体经历更低的风险。然而，行业净进口的增加对行业任期更长的劳动者而言会带来更大的风险上升。尽管净进口也与这些劳动者平均收入的下降相关，但对收入水平的估计影响在经济上较小。我们的福利框架同时考虑平均收入和收入风险，表明贸易暴露的福利后果在数量上由风险渠道主导。