Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
揭示冲突期间的经济政策不确定性
Uncovering economic policy uncertainty during conflict
摘要
The correct measurement of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) plays a critical role in many policy settings — in particular where economic policy decisions need to be taken in response to large shocks. One such large shock is armed conflict. But, counterintuitively, the standard text-based EPU index systematically declines during armed conflict periods. Using a global news corpus covering 192 countries and over 5 million articles, we show that this decline is driven not by reduced uncertainty, but by a crowding out of reporting on economics and policy. We show that a combination of topic modeling and two-way fixed effects can be used to adjust the measurement of EPU, providing a new view on political risk during armed conflict. After adjustment, the EPU aligns more closely with firm perceptions, political risk insurance, and investment during armed conflict.
中文摘要
经济政策不确定性（EPU）的正确测度在许多政策情境中起着关键作用——尤其是在需要针对重大冲击做出经济政策决策的情况下。武装冲突便是此类重大冲击之一。然而，与直觉相反，基于文本的标准EPU指数在武装冲突期间会系统性下降。利用覆盖192个国家、超过500万篇文章的全球新闻语料库，我们表明这种下降并非源于不确定性降低，而是源于对经济与政策报道的挤出。我们表明，将主题建模与双向固定效应相结合可用于调整EPU的测度，从而为武装冲突期间的政治风险提供新的视角。经过调整后，EPU与武装冲突期间的企业感知、政治风险保险和投资更加吻合。