Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
揭示低生育率、萎缩社会中的家庭碳排放
Uncovering household carbon emissions in a lower-fertility, shrinking society
摘要
Societal shifts such as shrinking households and lower fertility, profoundly affect household consumption patterns and emissions, posing challenges to climate mitigation goals. Using Japan, one of the countries with smaller household size and fertility rate than the global average, as a reference, we investigate long-term carbon footprints from household consumption and its intertemporal gaps based on household size and structure, by using an environmentally extended input–output model and Japan's household consumption survey from 2012 to 2022. The findings reveal that per capita household carbon footprint decreases with increasing household size. However, even within households of the same size, per capita carbon footprint varies by household structure, with households having fewer children typically generating lower emissions. Moreover, the carbon footprints of households with children show a greater intertemporal reduction gap than those without children. This study emphasizes that carbon reduction policies should be formulated with a deep understanding of household characteristics under social shifts, and these results have broad applications in other nations undergoing demographic transitions.
中文摘要
家庭规模缩小和生育率下降等社会变迁深刻影响家庭消费模式与排放，对气候减缓目标构成挑战。本研究以日本为参照——该国是家庭规模和生育率均低于全球平均水平的国家之一——基于环境扩展投入产出模型和日本2012年至2022年家庭消费调查，考察家庭消费的长期碳足迹及其在家庭规模和结构上的跨期差距。研究发现，人均家庭碳足迹随家庭规模增大而降低。然而，即使在相同规模的家庭内部，人均碳足迹也因家庭结构而异，子女较少的家庭通常产生较低排放。此外，有子女家庭的碳足迹表现出比无子女家庭更大的跨期减排差距。本研究强调，碳减排政策应在深刻理解社会变迁下家庭特征的基础上制定，且这些结果在经历人口转变的其他国家具有广泛应用价值。