Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
揭示隐疾
Unveiling the Unseen Illness
摘要
We utilize region-day variation in actual vs. forecasted weather conditions (i.e. forecasting errors) to comprehensively investigate the effects of the first public warning system for extreme heat events on behavioral and health outcomes in Japan. We find that heat alerts led to a 16% increase in ambulance-related hospital visits. An analysis of mechanisms suggests this is primarily driven by increased awareness and thus reporting of heat strokes that would otherwise have gone undetected, as opposed to substitution in health diagnoses. We further document evidence of avoidance behaviors (e.g. electricity usage).
中文摘要
我们利用实际天气状况与预报天气状况之间的区域-日度差异（即预报误差），全面考察了日本首个极端高温事件公共预警系统对行为与健康结果的影响。研究发现，高温预警导致与救护车相关的医院就诊量增加了16%。机制分析表明，这一增长主要源于预警提高了公众意识，从而报告了原本可能未被发现的日射病病例，而非健康诊断上的替代效应。我们还记录了规避行为（如电力使用）的证据。