Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
使用分布回归双重差分评估最低工资引入对工资、收入和工时分布的影响
Using Distribution Regression Difference‐in‐Differences to Evaluate the Effects of a Minimum Wage Introduction on the Distributions of Wages, Earnings, and Working Hours
摘要
We estimate the causal effects of the introduction of the minimum wage in Germany on the distributions of hourly wages, monthly earnings, and hours worked, combining rich large‐scale data sources. We compare linear and non‐linear versions of distribution regression difference‐in‐differences (DR‐DiD) and also estimate bivariate DR‐DiD. We show that the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015 led to shifts in low hourly wages around the minimum wage threshold including spillover effects up to 50%–70% above. We present evidence for working hours effects in different parts of the hours distribution, though the magnitudes are small. The minimum wage explains a sizeable share of the recent fall in wage and earnings inequality. We show that groups that were later more strongly affected by the minimum wage already experienced higher wage growth before the introduction, leading to an overestimation of minimum wage effects if not accounted for.
中文摘要
我们结合丰富的大规模数据来源，估计德国引入最低工资对小时工资、月收入和工时分布的因果效应。我们比较了分布回归双重差分（DR‐DiD）的线性与非线性版本，并估计了双变量DR‐DiD。我们表明，2015年最低工资的引入导致最低工资阈值附近的低小时工资发生变动，并包括高达阈值以上50%–70%的溢出效应。我们提供了工时分布不同部分存在工时效应的证据，尽管幅度较小。最低工资解释了近期工资和收入不平等下降的相当大一部分。我们表明，后来受最低工资影响更强的群体在引入之前就已经经历了更高的工资增长，若不加以考虑，会导致对最低工资效应的高估。