Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
评估中国特高压输电线路的价值：生产率提升、宏观经济溢出效应与高回报
Valuing the UHV transmission lines in China: productivity gains, macroeconomic spillovers, and high returns
摘要
Ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission infrastructure is central to China's strategy for resolving spatial mismatches in electricity supply and demand. Given its substantial capital requirements, a systematic evaluation of UHV projects' economic impact and cost-effectiveness is critical. Existing literature predominantly emphasizes causal inference on specific economic outcomes, with limited assessment of aggregate economic contributions. To address this gap, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of UHV investments through a productivity enhancement mechanism. Using a propensity score matching difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) approach with time-varying treatment, we first estimate UHV-induced firm productivity gains based on firm-level data from China. These micro-level effects are then embedded into a multi-regional, multi-sectoral general equilibrium model, capturing direct and spatial spillover effects via interregional trade and intersectoral linkages. Results indicate: (1) UHV projects elevate firm productivity by 3.62% on average; (2) UHV infrastructure raises national GDP by approximately 0.78%, including a 0.14% gain in provinces without direct UHV construction; (3) Assuming a 7% discount rate and a 30-year lifespan, UHV investments yield a 268% macroeconomic return. Our findings highlight the macroeconomic value of UHV expansion and provide empirical support for future investment prioritization.
中文摘要
特高压输电基础设施是中国解决电力供需空间错配战略的核心。鉴于其巨大的资本需求，系统评估特高压项目的经济影响和成本效益至关重要。现有文献主要侧重于对特定经济结果的因果推断，对总体经济贡献的评估较为有限。为弥补这一空白，我们通过生产率提升机制量化特高压投资的宏观经济效应。采用具有时变处理变量的倾向得分匹配双重差分（PSM-DID）方法，我们首先基于中国企业层面数据估计特高压引致的厂商生产率提升。随后将这些微观层面的效应嵌入多区域、多部门一般均衡模型，通过区域间贸易和部门间关联捕捉直接效应与空间溢出效应。结果表明：（1）特高压项目使厂商生产率平均提高3.62%；（2）特高压基础设施使全国GDP提高约0.78%，其中包括未直接建设特高压省份0.14%的增益；（3）假设贴现率为7%、使用寿命为30年，特高压投资产生268%的宏观经济回报。我们的发现凸显了特高压扩张的宏观经济价值，并为未来投资优先排序提供了实证支持。