Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
瓦尔拉斯-鲍利讲座：广阔世界中的气候政策
Walras–Bowley Lecture: Climate Policy in the Wide World
摘要
We construct a dynamic integrated assessment model of climate and the economy with very high geographic resolution. Migration is free within, but not allowed across, countries. The model parameterization uses a wealth of data, including the distribution of output, population, energy sources and use, and estimates of the local damages from climate change. It implies very large geographic dispersion in damages from warming. We conduct three kinds of policy experiments. In one, we note that a modest, uniform carbon tax limits global warming and damages around the world substantially. In a second experiment, we let the poorest countries not tax carbon, while the rest compensate by setting higher taxes; the efficiency losses are large. In a final experiment, we find that fast green technology growth alone is a poor substitute for carbon taxes, whether globally available or not.
中文摘要
我们构建了一个具有极高地理分辨率的动态气候与经济综合评估模型。模型设定中，人口可在国家内部自由迁移，但禁止跨国流动。模型参数化过程运用了丰富的数据集，包括产出分布、人口分布、能源来源与使用情况，以及气候变化对各地造成的损失估算。该模型揭示了全球变暖损失在地理分布上的巨大差异性。我们开展了三类政策实验：其一，适度的统一碳税能够显著抑制全球变暖并大幅降低全球损失；其二，若允许最贫困国家免征碳税，而其他国家通过提高税率进行补偿，则会产生巨大的效率损失；其三，我们发现，无论绿色技术是否实现全球普及，仅靠其快速增长都无法有效替代碳税政策。