Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
当机会成本波及他人：学校选择抽签对犯罪行为的溢出效应
When Opportunity Costs Others: The Spillover E ects of School Choice Lotteries on Criminality
摘要
While prior evidence suggests that school choice lottery winners have lower adult criminality, there is little evidence on how school choice lotteries impact non-applicants. We leverage variation in actual lottery winners, conditional on expected lottery winners, to link the displacement of middle school peers to adult criminal outcomes. We find that non-applicant, lower-risk boys are more likely to be arrested as adults when lottery applicants from their neighborhood do not attend their assigned middle school. Our estimated effects of an applicant's departure on students left behind are similar in magnitude to the positive effects experienced by a lottery winner.
中文摘要
尽管已有证据表明，学校选择抽签中签者的成年犯罪率较低，但关于学校选择抽签如何影响非申请者，证据仍然很少。我们利用实际抽签中签者在给定预期中签者条件下的变异，将初中同辈的位移与成年犯罪结果联系起来。我们发现，当来自同一社区且参与抽签的申请者未就读其被分配的初中时，非申请者中风险较低的男孩在成年后更有可能被逮捕。我们估计的申请者离开对留守学生的影响，在量级上与抽签中签者所经历的正向效应相似。