Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
瑞士避风港何在？地缘政治风险、银行存款与托管投资组合
Where is the Swiss safe haven? Geopolitical risk, bank deposits and custody portfolios
摘要
Switzerland is the archetypal financial safe haven, yet its bank deposits do not behave like one. Using Swiss National Bank data, we find no robust positive deposit response to geopolitical risk. The clearer response appears in custody portfolios. After a one-standard-deviation rise in European geopolitical risk, the non-resident equity share falls by 1.16 p.p. relative to the resident share after two years, while the bond and money-market share rises by 0.78 p.p. after one year and 0.68 p.p. after two years. Global geopolitical threats and acts generate opposite relative-share responses, a pattern consistent with precautionary de-risking.
中文摘要
瑞士是典型的金融避风港，但其银行存款的表现却并非如此。利用瑞士国家银行的数据，我们发现存款对地缘政治风险没有稳健的正向响应。更清晰的响应出现在托管投资组合中。在欧洲地缘政治风险上升一个标准差后，两年后非居民股票份额相对于居民份额下降1.16个百分点，而债券和货币市场份额在一年后上升0.78个百分点、两年后上升0.68个百分点。全球性地缘政治威胁与地缘政治行为对相对份额产生相反的响应，这一模式与预防性去风险相一致。