Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
一厢情愿是冒险的思维
Wishful thinking is risky thinking
摘要
This paper develops a tractable model of wishful thinking that captures both the benefits and costs of optimistic biased beliefs and the behaviors they induce. Building on Bratcha and Brown (2012) and Caplin and Leahy (2019), we propose a two-stage framework in which a decision maker selects actions and belief structures under uncertainty, balancing subjective utility against the cost of departing from prior beliefs. The cost is formalized using a $$\phi $$ ϕ -divergence–based belief distortion function, encompassing measures such as Kullback–Leibler, reverse Kullback-Leibler, and Pearson $$\chi ^2$$ χ 2 distances. Our contributions are threefold: (i) we characterize optimal beliefs, showing they twist prior probabilities toward high-utility states across a broad class of divergences; (ii) we link WT behavior to risk-seeking actions via convex risk measures; and (iii) we introduce cognitive censoring and cognitive emergence, capturing extreme beliefs. Methodologically, the model provides new insights into how optimistic beliefs reshape decision-making, extending the theoretical foundations of WT and opening avenues for future research.
中文摘要
本文构建了一个易于处理的一厢情愿思维模型，该模型既捕捉了乐观偏差信念的收益与成本，也刻画了由此引发的行为。基于Bratcha和Brown（2012）以及Caplin和Leahy（2019）的研究，我们提出了一个两阶段框架：决策者在不确定性下选择行动与信念结构，在主观效用与偏离先验信念的成本之间进行权衡。该成本通过基于$$\phi $$-散度的信念扭曲函数形式化，涵盖Kullback-Leibler散度、逆Kullback-Leibler散度以及Pearson $$\chi ^2$$距离等度量。我们的贡献有三方面：（i）刻画了最优信念，表明在广泛的散度类别中，最优信念会将先验概率向高效用状态扭曲；（ii）通过凸风险度量将一厢情愿行为与风险寻求行动联系起来；（iii）引入认知审查与认知涌现概念，以捕捉极端信念。在方法论上，该模型为乐观信念如何重塑决策提供了新见解，拓展了一厢情愿思维的理论基础，并为未来研究开辟了方向。