Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
你的债务，我的通胀：信任在欧洲央行中的作用
Your debt, my inflation: The role of trust in the ECB
摘要
High public debt in several euro-area countries has renewed the debate over a central question: can fiscal pressures in one member state affect inflation expectations elsewhere by constraining the ECB? This column uses a randomised information experiment with German firms to show that the answer depends on trust in the central bank. Pessimistic debt projections for France, Italy, and Spain raise the three-year inflation expectations of firms that distrust the ECB, while high-trust firms do not react. By contrast, a €500 billion German debt package leaves inflation expectations unchanged.
中文摘要
几个欧元区国家的高公共债务重新引发了对一个核心问题的辩论：一个成员国的财政压力能否通过约束欧洲央行来影响其他地区的通胀预期？本专栏利用一项针对德国企业的随机信息实验表明，答案取决于对中央银行的信任。对法国、意大利和西班牙的悲观债务预测，会提高那些不信任欧洲央行的企业的三年期通胀预期，而高信任度的企业则没有反应。相比之下，一项5000亿欧元的德国债务计划并未使通胀预期发生变化。