The Returns to Temporary Migration: Experimental Evidence from the H-2A Program

Abstract

In 2024, 315,000 H-2A temporary seasonal work visas were issued to agricultural workers in the US. The H-2A program is controversial: earnings are high, but critics argue that workers face poor working and living conditions and that families bear the costs of separation. We randomize H-2A seasonal visas for Mexican workers. During a single US season, migrants earn more than USD 16,000 and send 70% of these earnings to origin households. Living standards in Mexico rise: food security increases, the probability of living in poverty falls by 10 percentage points, and families invest in home improvements, durable assets, and debt reduction, with little investment in businesses or productive assets. Migration has spillovers onto the household: the mental health of household respondents worsens and they avoid higher-risk situations such as walking at night, and intra-household dynamics change. Migrants generally report satisfaction with H-2A jobs and contracts, all report that they would migrate again, and 85% do so the following season.