Coasian Stakeholder Theory
Matthew J. Higgins, Peter G. Klein, Anita McGahan, Rob Wuebker
本周论文快览
35 篇Behavioral Finance at 40
Nicholas C. Barberis
Who Can Control Our Firms? National Security and Foreign Ownership Regulation
Rodrigo Adão, Olivier Kooi
Tariff Staggering
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe
Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration
Olivier J. Blanchard, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra
The Impact of Silver Loading in ACA Health Insurance Marketplaces
Coleman Drake, David Anderson, Dylan Nagy, Mark Shepard
When Cash Wakes Up: Inertia in Institutional Money Market Funds and the Potential Effects of AI Disruption
Ali Hortaçsu, Younggeun Yoo
Competition in Generative AI: Evidence from Consumer Demand
Mark L. Egan, Dominic Russel, Claire Shi, Vincent Yao
The Great Game: A Model of Geoeconomic Competition
Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger
A Network Approach to Geopolitics
Ernest Liu, Stephen J. Redding, Bennett Smith-Worthington, David Y. Yang
Training Your Replacement: Worker Incentives and the Pace of Automation
Joshua S. Gans, Peter Landry
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
Manish Jha, Jialin Qian, Michael Weber, Baozhong Yang
fevc: Leave-Out Bias-Corrected Variance Decompositions in Stata
Johannes F. Schmieder
An LLM Workflow for Functional Form Sensitivity Analysis
Isaiah Andrews, Simon C. Essig Aberg, Jesse M. Shapiro
The Value of (Sub) Specialization: Evidence from Oncology
René Karadakic, David C. Chan Jr, Nancy L. Keating, Bruce E. Landon, Michael L. Barnett
Homework in Climate Economics: Household Production, Environmental Preferences, and Climate Policy
Stephie Fried, David Lagakos, Hannah Rhodenhiser
Selective Admissions in Nursing Homes: Evidence from a Randomized Audit Study
Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Jesse Gubb, Neale Mahoney, James Okun
Global Entrepreneurial Talent Flows: Widely Funded, Selectively Successful?
Paul A. Gompers, Henry Woo
Comparative Advantage and Economies of Scale under Uncertainty
Xiao Ma, Natalia Ramondo
The Returns to Temporary Migration: Experimental Evidence from the H-2A Program
Melanie Morten, Beatriz Magaloni, Sebastián Cubillos, Alice Yiqian Wang
Sex and Subsistence: Income Effects on Risky Sexual Behavior and Partner Selection
Natalie Bau, Corinne Low, Bryce Millett Steinberg
Gender Gaps: International Evidence on the Role of Family Policy
Francine D. Blau, Lawrence Kahn, Freddy Bachmann, Helen Burkhardt, Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco, David Titus
Optimal Taxation of Indistinguishable Activities
Jacob Goldin, Sebastian Koehne, Nicholas Lawson
Regional Variations and Productivity Puzzles in Health Care
Amy Finkelstein, Jonathan S. Skinner
Representation, Innovation, and Product Adoption
Jennifer L. Kao, Tamar Oostrom
Implications of Policy Interventions on Eliminating Gender Gaps
Carla Varona Cervantes, Russell Cooper
Tax Productivity and Economic Development: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis
Radhika Goyal, Anders Jensen, David Lagakos, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Yuntian Zhao
Losing Their Religion
Richard Murphy, Shqiponja Telhaj
Insuring Landlords
Thomas Bézy, Antoine B. Levy, Timothy McQuade
We Just Created More Than 1,000 Synthetic Controls To Study California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage
我们刚刚创建了超过1,000个合成控制组来研究加州20美元快餐最低工资
Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, Jonathan Meer, Joshua D. Nguyen
College Success: Understanding the Roles of Financial Aid, Loans, Preparation, and Incentives
Douglas N. Harris, Christopher R. Taber, Yu (Alan) Yang
The Occupational Ladder: Implications for Life-Cycle Wage Dynamics
Henry E. Siu, Kelly Foley, Guido Matias Cortes
Strategic Monetary Policy in Open Economies
Louphou Coulibaly, Charles Engel
HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior
HouseholdBench：评估大型语言模型作为家庭经济行为预测器
Jin Huang, Diego Ferreras Garrucho, Yutong Xie, Walter M. Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei, Chen Lian, Jonathon Hazell
Beliefs Over Contracts
Francis Annan, Collin B. Raymond
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Coasian Stakeholder Theory
科斯式利益相关者理论
Abstract
Stakeholder theory asks who is in, who is out, and who gets what. Existing work illuminates important dimensions of firm–stakeholder relationships but does not supply a common, transaction-level rule connecting these questions. We use the Coase theorem to develop such a rule. A Coasian stakeholder is an actor with shutdown power, defined as the de facto capacity, within the relevant time horizon, to prevent, materially delay, or substantially reduce the expected joint value of a focal value-creating transaction. If all such actors are identified and bargaining and enforcement are costless, value-maximizing transactions proceed, although rights and bargaining positions may affect who captures value. When transaction costs are positive, however, identification, bargaining, coalition formation, and enforcement can delay, distort, or suppress those transactions. Across six propositions, we explain how shutdown power is identified and acquired, how complementarity and bargaining conditions shape value capture, how firms reshape stakeholder sets through coalition costs and governance design, and why consolidated opposition can sometimes preserve transactions that fragmented claims would suppress.
中文摘要
利益相关者理论追问谁在内、谁在外以及谁获得什么。现有研究揭示了企业—利益相关者关系的重要维度，但并未提供一条连接这些问题的、共同的交易层面规则。我们运用科斯定理来发展这样一条规则。科斯式利益相关者是拥有停摆权力的行为主体，停摆权力被定义为在相关时间范围内，阻止、实质性延迟或大幅降低某一焦点价值创造交易的预期联合价值的事实能力。如果所有此类行为主体都被识别出来，且讨价还价与执行均无成本，则价值最大化的交易会继续进行，尽管权利和讨价还价地位可能影响谁获取价值。然而，当交易成本为正时，识别、讨价还价、联盟形成和执行可能延迟、扭曲或抑制这些交易。通过六个命题，我们解释了停摆权力如何被识别和获取，互补性与讨价还价条件如何塑造价值获取，企业如何通过联盟成本和治理设计重塑利益相关者集合，以及为什么联合反对有时能够保全那些碎片化主张会抑制的交易。
Behavioral Finance at 40
行为金融学40年
Abstract
Behavioral finance seeks to improve our understanding of markets, investors, and firms by adopting a psychologically realistic description of how people think. While behavioral finance ideas have been part of human discourse for decades if not centuries, the modern research effort in the field began in the 1980s. Forty years later, behavioral finance is a vibrant area of financial economics. In this article, I explain why by reviewing some of its recent progress. I focus on three topics – beliefs about future earnings, beliefs about future returns, and prospect theory – and on their applications to understanding asset prices and investor behavior. I close by commenting on some new directions in the field – cognitive foundations, non-traditional decision processes, and artificial intelligence.
中文摘要
行为金融学旨在通过采用对人们思考方式的心理现实主义描述，来增进我们对市场、投资者和企业的理解。尽管行为金融学的思想作为人类话语的一部分已存在数十年甚至数百年，但该领域现代研究的努力始于1980年代。四十年后，行为金融学已成为金融经济学中一个充满活力的领域。在本文中，我通过回顾其近期的一些进展来解释原因。我聚焦于三个主题——对未来盈利的信念、对未来回报的信念以及前景理论——及其在理解资产价格和投资者行为方面的应用。最后，我评论了该领域的一些新方向——认知基础、非传统决策过程以及人工智能。
Who Can Control Our Firms? National Security and Foreign Ownership Regulation
谁能控制我们的企业？国家安全与外资所有权监管
Abstract
Governments invoke national security to regulate foreign acquisitions of domestic firms. Why is ownership regulation a distinct policy margin beyond standard tools, like production subsidies and trade taxes? We show that contractual frictions make multinational firm boundaries central to geoeconomic policy. Within firms, ownership allocates residual control that affects outcomes through non-contractible decisions. Between governments, the absence of enforceable agreements makes the economic costs of conflict shape geopolitical bargaining. Foreign ownership depends on private returns to foreign control, but also determines national exposure to geopolitical conflict. It can increase foreign dependence, technology transfer, or sabotage scope. If such margins were contractible, the government could regulate them directly. When they are not, ownership regulation is the second-best tool that changes control rights and, thus, geopolitical outcomes. Consistent with our mechanism, U.S. regulation emphasizes the national-security risks of foreign control over firm decisions, has tightened with rising geopolitical tensions, and is tighter in sectors with higher exposure to defense demand and contractual frictions.
中文摘要
政府援引国家安全来监管外国对本国企业的收购。为什么所有权监管是超越生产补贴和贸易税等标准工具的一个独立政策边际？我们表明，契约摩擦使跨国企业边界成为地缘经济政策的核心。在企业内部，所有权分配剩余控制权，而剩余控制权通过不可契约化的决策影响结果。在政府之间，缺乏可执行的协议使冲突的经济成本塑造地缘政治讨价还价。外资所有权取决于外国控制的私人回报，但也决定国家对地缘政治冲突的暴露程度。它可能增加外国依赖、技术转移或破坏范围。如果这些边际是可契约化的，政府就可以直接监管它们。当它们不可契约化时，所有权监管就是改变控制权、从而改变地缘政治结果的次优工具。与我们的机制一致，美国监管强调外国控制对企业决策的国家安全风险，随着地缘政治紧张加剧而收紧，并且在国防需求暴露度和契约摩擦更高的部门更为严格。
Tariff Staggering
关税错峰调整
Abstract
Using a panel of U.S. imports and customs duties at the HS 6-digit level, we document that in a typical quarter about 20 percent of tariffs rise, 20 percent fall, and 60 percent remain unchanged. Motivated by these facts, we develop a model of staggered tariff setting and embed it in a dynamic open-economy framework. Staggering changes the dynamics of the cross-sectional mean tariff, generating hump-shaped macroeconomic responses to tariff shocks. Staggering also overturns the Razin–Svensson trade- balance neutrality result for permanent tariff increases, because the gradual adjustment of the mean tariff creates an anticipation effect that induces agents to front-load net imports. Inherited tariff dispersion has first-order macroeconomic effects, allowing tariff harmonization to be studied with linear approximation methods. We find that eliminating tariff dispersion while holding the mean tariff unchanged has effects akin to a transitory tariff cut in an economy without staggering.
中文摘要
使用HS 6位编码层面的美国进口和关税面板数据，我们记录到在典型季度中，约20%的关税上升，20%下降，60%保持不变。受这些事实启发，我们构建了一个错峰设定关税的模型，并将其嵌入动态开放经济框架。错峰调整改变了横截面平均关税的动态，对关税冲击产生驼峰形的宏观经济反应。错峰调整还推翻了Razin–Svensson关于永久性关税提高的贸易平衡中性结果，因为平均关税的逐步调整产生了预期效应，诱导主体提前净进口。继承的关税离散度具有一阶宏观经济效应，使得关税协调可以用线性近似方法研究。我们发现，在保持平均关税不变的情况下消除关税离散度，其效果类似于在没有错峰调整的经济中进行临时性关税削减。
Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration
评级、债务与赤字：一项探索
Abstract
We look at the effects of debt and primary fiscal balances on sovereign credit ratings through the lens of a simple model. We find that the ratings differ from the implications of the model in three important ways. They give much more weight to debt relative to forecast primary balances. They understate the effects of the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate. They give a very large role to country effects. For the same level of debt and forecast primary balances, they imply extremely different ratings across countries, and imply extremely different levels of debt needed to reach a given rating.
中文摘要
我们通过一个简单模型的视角，考察债务和基本财政余额对主权信用评级的影响。我们发现，评级在三个重要方面与模型的含义不同。它们相对于预测的基本财政余额，给予债务大得多的权重。它们低估了利率与增长率之间差异的影响。它们赋予国家效应非常大的作用。对于相同的债务水平和预测基本财政余额，它们意味着各国之间的评级差异极大，并且意味着达到给定评级所需的债务水平差异极大。
The Impact of Silver Loading in ACA Health Insurance Marketplaces
ACA健康保险市场中的银级加载效应
Abstract
In 2017, the federal government ended payments for cost-sharing reduction (CSR) subsidies for the Health Insurance Marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act. Rather than uniformly increase Marketplace plans’ premiums to offset the loss of these payments, over 40 states responded by silver loading—only increasing the premiums of silver plans to which CSR subsidies apply and premium tax credits are tied. Silver loading was intended to increase the affordability of Marketplace coverage by increasing premium tax credits and thereby enrollment, though the literature lacks causal estimates. Furthermore, Congress is considering reinstating CSR subsidy funding, effectively undoing silver loading. We use panel data on 2015-2021 Marketplace health plan premiums and enrollment in 12 states from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to estimate silver loading’s effects using contiguous county-pair models. We find that silver loading functioned as intended, lowering the cost of Marketplace coverage and increasing enrollment by 8-14% among subsidized Marketplace enrollees with incomes between 250% and 400% of the poverty level. We project that Congress ending silver loading would decrease Marketplace enrollment by at least 330,000 enrollees in 2027.
中文摘要
2017年，联邦政府终止了对《平价医疗法案》所创建的健康保险市场的成本分担削减（CSR）补贴支付。超过40个州没有统一提高市场计划保费以抵消这些支付损失，而是通过银级加载来应对——仅提高适用CSR补贴且保费税收抵免与之挂钩的银级计划的保费。银级加载旨在通过增加保费税收抵免从而提高参保人数，来增强市场覆盖的可负担性，尽管文献缺乏因果估计。此外，国会正在考虑恢复CSR补贴资金，这实际上将撤销银级加载。我们使用来自医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心的2015—2021年12个州市场健康计划保费和参保的面板数据，采用相邻县对模型估计银级加载的效应。我们发现银级加载按预期发挥作用，降低了市场覆盖的成本，并使收入在贫困线250%至400%之间的受补贴市场参保者参保人数增加8—14%。我们预测，国会终止银级加载将在2027年使市场参保人数至少减少330,000人。
When Cash Wakes Up: Inertia in Institutional Money Market Funds and the Potential Effects of AI Disruption
当现金苏醒：机构货币市场基金的惯性及AI颠覆的潜在影响
Abstract
We study institutional cash management by constructing a novel dataset that records the specific money market funds (MMFs) held by each mutual fund in each month from 2010 to 2024. We document remarkably high inertia: more than half of mutual funds never switched their MMF choice throughout the sample period, despite non-negligible yield dispersion. To decompose the sources of this inertia, we develop a two-stage structural model that separately identifies the determinants of portfolio managers’ attentiveness (“waking up”) and their conditional preferences once attentive. We estimate the model using a methodology that combines BLP-style contraction mapping with maximum likelihood. We establish three main findings. First, MMFs with less attentive investor bases engage in greater liquidity transformation while offering lower yields. As a result, they earn higher profits and exhibit significantly higher survival rates, especially during periods of low interest rates. Second, we find that aggregate flows appear more yield-sensitive during low interest rate periods (the well-documented “reaching for yield” phenomenon) not because individual investors become more yield-seeking, but because a larger fraction of investors becomes attentive—a composition effect rather than a preference shift. Third, counterfactual analysis reveals a potential tension between market efficiency and financial stability if AI-driven automation reduces investor inattention. In the absence of inattention, fees fall by approximately half, yield dispersion collapses to near zero, and market concentration declines by roughly 20%, but monthly fund flows increase by about three times and the incidence of fund-months in which redemptions exceed a fund’s weekly liquid assets rises by about six times, raising the risk of fire sales and MMF runs.
中文摘要
我们通过构建一个新颖的数据集来研究机构现金管理，该数据集记录了2010年至2024年期间每个月每只共同基金所持有的具体货币市场基金（MMF）。我们记录了极高的惯性：尽管存在不可忽视的收益率离散度，超过一半的共同基金在整个样本期内从未更换过其MMF选择。为了分解这种惯性的来源，我们构建了一个两阶段结构模型，分别识别投资组合经理注意力（“苏醒”）的决定因素以及他们在关注后的条件偏好。我们使用一种结合BLP风格收缩映射与最大似然的方法来估计该模型。我们得出三个主要发现。第一，投资者基础注意力较低的MMF进行更大程度的流动性转换，同时提供较低的收益率。因此，它们赚取更高的利润，并表现出显著更高的存活率，尤其是在低利率时期。第二，我们发现总流量在低利率时期似乎对收益率更敏感（即文献充分记录的“追逐收益”现象），这并不是因为个体投资者变得更加追逐收益，而是因为更大比例的投资者变得关注——这是一种构成效应而非偏好转变。第三，反事实分析揭示了如果AI驱动的自动化减少投资者疏忽，市场效率与金融稳定之间可能存在潜在张力。在不存在疏忽的情况下，费用下降约一半，收益率离散度坍缩至接近零，市场集中度下降约20%，但月度基金流量增加约三倍，赎回超过基金周度流动资产的事件（基金-月）发生率上升约六倍，增加了甩卖和MMF挤兑的风险。
Competition in Generative AI: Evidence from Consumer Demand
生成式AI中的竞争：来自消费者需求的证据
Abstract
How competitive will the market for generative AI be as it matures? Using novel transaction level credit and debit card data covering 174 million consumers and 114 billion transactions, we study the adoption of paid services and the demand-side foundations of competition in this market. As of April 2026, approximately 2.9% of U.S. consumers pay for at least one major generative AI service, with adoption highest among younger and higher-income consumers. Nearly all of these paid users subscribe to basic plans that cost $30 or less per month. Three patterns suggest limited differentiation and low switching costs. First, although multihoming is common, it has declined as providers’ capabilities have expanded. Second, annual customer retention rates range from 20% to 45% across major AI providers, lower than those for many other subscription products. Third, switching rises around major model releases. Motivated by these findings, we develop and estimate a structural model of AI service demand and supply that reveals strong competitive pressure. Consumers are highly price sensitive, have much weaker preferences for particular providers than for AI overall, and view AI services as increasingly close substitutes. Our results suggest that, absent a substantial increase in AI model quality differentiation, growing substitutability among services will constrain providers’ pricing power and allow consumers to capture a large share of the surplus generated by these services.
中文摘要
随着生成式AI市场走向成熟，其竞争程度将如何？我们使用涵盖1.74亿消费者和1140亿笔交易的新颖交易级信用卡和借记卡数据，研究付费服务的采用以及该市场需求的竞争基础。截至2026年4月，约2.9%的美国消费者为至少一项主要生成式AI服务付费，采用率在年轻和高收入消费者中最高。几乎所有付费用户都订阅每月费用不超过30美元的基础计划。三种模式表明差异化有限且转换成本较低。第一，尽管多归属很常见，但随着提供商能力的扩展，多归属有所下降。第二，主要AI提供商的年度客户留存率在20%至45%之间，低于许多其他订阅产品。第三，转换在主要模型发布前后上升。受这些发现启发，我们构建并估计了一个AI服务需求与供给的结构模型，揭示了强大的竞争压力。消费者对价格高度敏感，对特定提供商的偏好远弱于对AI整体的偏好，并且认为AI服务日益成为接近的替代品。我们的结果表明，在AI模型质量差异化没有大幅增加的情况下，服务之间日益增强的可替代性将限制提供商的定价能力，并让消费者获取这些服务所产生剩余的大部分。
The Great Game: A Model of Geoeconomic Competition
大博弈：地缘经济竞争模型
Abstract
We build a model of two hegemons that have valuable trading relationships with each other and at the same time compete in exerting geoeconomic power over countries in the rest of the world. When the hegemons trade with each other, their optimal policy is shaped both by classic economic considerations - the profitability of that specific trade - and by geoeconomic competition - how the trade affects the power of each hegemon vis-a-vis the rest of the world. We show that containment, a policy mix in which a hegemon limits sales of its inputs to the rival hegemon and uses its power to demand that the rest of the world shift away from sourcing from the rival, arises when the two hegemons offer relatively substitutable exports, are less interdependent with each other, and have more direct geopolitical rivalry. Countries in the rest of the world benefit, all else equal, from hegemons containing each other since they partially squander their power with offsetting demands. However, containment policy can also worsen the efficiency of global production, leaving the rest of the world worse off.
中文摘要
我们构建了一个两个霸权的模型，它们彼此拥有有价值的贸易关系，同时在世界其他地区争夺施加地缘经济权力。当两个霸权相互贸易时，它们的最优政策既受经典经济考量——该特定贸易的盈利能力——的影响，也受地缘经济竞争——该贸易如何影响每个霸权相对于世界其他地区的权力——的影响。我们表明，当两个霸权提供的出口品相对可替代、彼此相互依赖程度较低、且具有更直接的地缘政治竞争时，就会出现遏制——一种政策组合，即一个霸权限制向对手霸权销售其投入品，并利用其权力要求世界其他地区减少从对手采购。在其他条件相同的情况下，世界其他地区的国家会从霸权相互遏制中受益，因为它们通过相互抵消的要求部分浪费了自身权力。然而，遏制政策也可能恶化全球生产效率，使世界其他地区处境更糟。
A Network Approach to Geopolitics
地缘政治的网络方法
Abstract
We develop a tractable framework for analyzing geopolitics as a network of coordination and strategic influence. Countries choose geopolitical actions that trade off domestic interests against incentives to align with connected countries. They can exert costly bilateral influence to affect one another’s actions. We characterize equilibrium actions and bilateral influence in closed form. Cross-country differences in domestic interests decompose into latent geopolitical cleavages, each of which the network transmits into geopolitical actions independently of the others. The cross-country covariance matrices of domestic interests and of geopolitical actions identify the cleavages and their importance, from which we recover the network. We implement the framework using data on United Nations voting and democratic orientation. The inferred network is well approximated by a few dimensions, aligns with external measures of geopolitical ties, and recovers well-known historical cleavages. We undertake counterfactuals for domestic interests and network connections and quantify three notions of geopolitical power
中文摘要
我们开发了一个易于处理的框架，将地缘政治分析为协调与战略影响的网络。各国选择地缘政治行动，在国内利益与同相连国家保持一致的激励之间进行权衡。它们可以施加代价高昂的双边影响来影响彼此的行动。我们以闭式形式刻画均衡行动和双边影响。各国国内利益的差异分解为潜在的地缘政治裂痕，网络将每个裂痕独立于其他裂痕传导为地缘政治行动。国内利益和地缘政治行动的跨国协方差矩阵识别裂痕及其重要性，据此我们恢复网络。我们使用联合国投票和民主取向数据实施该框架。推断出的网络可由少数维度很好地近似，与地缘政治联系的外部度量一致，并恢复了众所周知的历史裂痕。我们对国内利益和网络连接进行反事实分析，并量化三种地缘政治权力概念。
Training Your Replacement: Worker Incentives and the Pace of Automation
培训你的替代者：工人激励与自动化速度
Abstract
Firms ask workers to train AI systems that will replace them. We model this with a worker who can shirk, cooperate with training, or obstruct training while maintaining productivity. Because training ends the job but only cooperation completes training, dismissal becomes a weaker penalty for shirking. The firm must raise the worker’s rent, and the worker gains from their replacement. AI can create jobs paying more than they produce and eliminate jobs it never automates. Firms paying only wages may slow training. A credible completion bonus equal to the worker’s rent without AI removes both the gain and the slowdown.
中文摘要
企业要求工人训练将取代他们的AI系统。我们用一个工人来建模：该工人可以偷懒、配合训练，或在保持生产率的同时阻碍训练。由于训练会终止工作，但只有配合才能完成训练，解雇成为对偷懒更弱的惩罚。企业必须提高工人的租金，而工人从其被替代中获益。AI可以创造薪酬高于其产出的工作岗位，也可以消除它从未自动化的岗位。仅支付工资的企业可能会放缓训练。等于无AI时工人租金的可信完成奖金消除了收益和放缓。
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
生成式AI、管理者预期与经济活动
Abstract
Using generative AI, we extract managers’ economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other existing measures. Industry- and firm-level scores capture sector- and firm-specific activity, and a composite of firm, industry, and macroeconomic expectations further improves forecasting power and horizon. Predictability concentrates among historically more accurate, less biased managers, consistent with an information rather than a noise channel. Managerial expectations thus offer incremental insights into economic activity, with implications for macro- and microeconomic decision-making.
中文摘要
我们使用生成式AI从超过120,000份企业电话会议记录中提取管理者的经济预期。由此产生的AI经济评分可预测五个或更多季度后的GDP增长、生产、就业和工资，超越了调查预测和其他现有指标。行业和企业层面的评分捕捉行业和企业特定活动，而企业、行业和宏观经济预期的综合指标进一步提高了预测能力和期限。可预测性集中在历史上更准确、偏差更小的管理者中，这与信息渠道而非噪声渠道一致。因此，管理者预期为经济活动提供了增量洞察，对宏观和微观经济决策具有启示意义。
fevc: Leave-Out Bias-Corrected Variance Decompositions in Stata
fevc：Stata 中的留出偏差校正方差分解
Abstract
Variance decompositions from regressions with worker and firm fixed effects are widely used to measure heterogeneity and sorting in linked data. Variances computed directly from estimated effects overstate heterogeneity because they include estimation noise, and the bias can be large when few workers move between firms. This article introduces fevc, a Stata command that implements the leave-out bias correction of Kline, Saggio, and Sølvsten (2020, “Leave-Out Estimation of Variance Components,” Econometrica 88: 1859–1898). fevc reports corrected variances of worker and firm effects, their covariance, and the variance of their sum. Researchers choose the unit left out, the treatment of controls, and the weights that define the population being described. The command also reports standard errors for projections of fixed effects on observed characteristics. It has two backends: a source-only Mata implementation that runs wherever Stata runs, and a parallel Rust plugin for large datasets. Calculations based on random projections report Monte Carlo standard errors that measure their numerical precision. In a public extract of Italian social-security records, the correction halves the estimated variance of firm effects and reverses the sign of the worker–firm covariance. In synthetic benchmarks with 6.4 million observations and 28 threads, the Rust backend is 1.3 to 3.5 times as fast as the Matlab package of Kline, Saggio, and Sølvsten. Under match deletion, its measured peak memory is about 30 percent of the Matlab package’s.
中文摘要
来自含工人和企业固定效应回归的方差分解被广泛用于衡量关联数据中的异质性和排序。直接由估计效应计算的方差会高估异质性，因为其中包含估计噪声，且当在企业间流动的工人很少时，偏差可能很大。本文介绍 fevc，这是一个 Stata 命令，实现了 Kline、Saggio 和 Sølvsten（2020，“Leave-Out Estimation of Variance Components,” Econometrica 88: 1859–1898）的留出偏差校正。fevc 报告工人效应和企业效应的校正方差、二者的协方差及其和的方差。研究者可选择留出的单位、控制变量的处理方式以及定义所描述总体的权重。该命令还报告固定效应对可观测特征投影的标准误。它有两个后端：一个仅用源码的 Mata 实现，可在任何运行 Stata 的环境中运行；以及一个用于大型数据集的并行 Rust 插件。基于随机投影的计算报告衡量其数值精度的蒙特卡洛标准误。在意大利社会保障记录的公开摘录中，该校正使企业效应的估计方差减半，并逆转了工人—企业协方差的符号。在包含 640 万观测值和 28 个线程的合成基准测试中，Rust 后端比 Kline、Saggio 和 Sølvsten 的 Matlab 包快 1.3 至 3.5 倍。在匹配删除下，其测得峰值内存约为 Matlab 包的 30%。
An LLM Workflow for Functional Form Sensitivity Analysis
用于函数形式敏感性分析的 LLM 工作流
Abstract
We introduce an LLM workflow for functional form sensitivity analysis. A researcher estimates the value of an object of interest by maximizing the fit of a working model to some data. The working model assumes an arbitrary form for some function. We define sensitivity by how much it is possible to change the estimate of the object of interest, without compromising fit, by selecting a different functional form. The workflow first looks for an analytic solution. If it fails to find one, it approximates the solution via numerical methods that respect the fit constraint at each step of a solver path. The workflow yields a verifiable lower bound on the in-sample sensitivity of the researcher’s estimate, and is fast in many practical situations. We illustrate with an application to the welfare cost of adverse selection in health insurance.
中文摘要
我们引入一个用于函数形式敏感性分析的 LLM 工作流。研究者通过最大化某个工作模型对某些数据的拟合程度来估计某个目标对象的值。该工作模型对某个函数假定任意形式。我们将敏感性定义为：在不损害拟合程度的情况下，通过选择不同的函数形式，目标对象的估计值可能改变多少。该工作流首先寻找解析解。如果找不到解析解，则通过数值方法近似求解，并在求解器路径的每一步都遵守拟合约束。该工作流给出研究者估计值的样本内敏感性的可验证下界，并且在许多实际情形中速度很快。我们以健康保险中逆向选择的福利成本应用为例进行说明。
The Value of (Sub) Specialization: Evidence from Oncology
（子）专业化的价值：来自肿瘤学的证据
Abstract
We estimate the returns to specialization in medical oncology, in which subspecialists focus on specific cancer types. Using 2.2 million Medicare chemotherapy episodes from 2008–2020, we instrument for subspecialist access with differential distance to cancer-type-specific subspecialists versus general oncologists. Access to a relevant subspecialist reduces three-year mortality by 4.5 percentage points (10 percent), without increasing Medicare spending or measured provider fragmentation. Subspecialists also increase the use of newer therapies and diagnosis-specific clinical trials. These findings show that specialization raises productivity when expertise is closely matched to the task.
中文摘要
我们估计医学肿瘤学中专业化的回报，其中亚专科医生专注于特定癌症类型。使用 2008–2020 年间 220 万例 Medicare 化疗病例，我们以到癌症类型特定亚专科医生与到普通肿瘤医生的距离差异作为亚专科医生可及性的工具变量。能够获得相关亚专科医生使三年死亡率降低 4.5 个百分点（10%），且不增加 Medicare 支出或测得的提供者碎片化。亚专科医生还增加了对较新疗法和诊断特异性临床试验的使用。这些发现表明，当专业知识与任务紧密匹配时，专业化会提高生产率。
Homework in Climate Economics: Household Production, Environmental Preferences, and Climate Policy
气候经济学中的家庭作业：家庭生产、环境偏好与气候政策
Abstract
Household energy use accounts for approximately one third of U.S. emissions. Guided by a new survey, we develop a quantitative model in which households differ in income and their desire to reduce their emissions. Our analysis of cost-minimizing subsidies for clean equipment, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, and residential solar yields three insights. First, solar receives the highest subsidy rate and accounts for over one third of abatement, reflecting its complementarities with clean equipment. Second, restricting subsidy eligibility to lower-income households generates only small cost savings. Third, without environmental preferences, household emissions would be over 15 percent higher.
中文摘要
家庭能源使用约占美国排放的三分之一。在一项新调查的指导下，我们构建了一个定量模型，其中家庭在收入和减少自身排放的意愿方面存在差异。我们对清洁设备（如电动汽车和热泵）及住宅太阳能的成本最小化补贴进行分析，得出三点洞见。第一，太阳能获得最高的补贴率，并占减排量的三分之一以上，这反映了其与清洁设备的互补性。第二，将补贴资格限制在低收入家庭仅带来很小的成本节约。第三，如果没有环境偏好，家庭排放将高出 15% 以上。
Selective Admissions in Nursing Homes: Evidence from a Randomized Audit Study
养老院中的选择性收治：来自随机审计研究的证据
Abstract
It has been widely documented that patients in the US who are associated with disadvantaged demographics receive care at lower quality nursing homes. To understand the role that selective admissions may play in contributing to this pattern, we conducted a nationwide audit study of the impact of patient race, payer, and medical condition on responses to about 5,500 availability inquiries sent to about 3,000 nursing homes. We find 10-15% lower availability for Medicaid patients compared to private-pay patients and for patients with Alzheimer’s disease compared to those without; these availability gaps generally increase with nursing home quality. We find no statistically significant evidence of differential availability by race. To quantify the implications of these selective admissions practices, we embed the audit study results in a model of constrained nursing home choice. We estimate that if, counterfactually, Medicaid patients had the same choice sets as their private-pay counterparts, they would attend higher quality nursing homes on average, but the private-Medicaid gap in quality would be reduced by only 5-10%. Our results suggest that supply-side availability differences by payer are widespread, but that they are unlikely to be the primary factor behind the observed gap in quality of nursing homes attended.
中文摘要
已有广泛文献记录，在美国，与弱势人口特征相关的患者接受的养老院护理质量较低。为了解选择性收治可能在促成这一模式中发挥的作用，我们开展了一项全国性审计研究，考察患者种族、支付方和医疗状况对约 3,000 家养老院收到的约 5,500 次可用性询问之回复的影响。我们发现，与自费患者相比，Medicaid 患者的可用性低 10-15%；与未患阿尔茨海默病的患者相比，阿尔茨海默病患者的可用性也低 10-15%；这些可用性差距通常随养老院质量提高而扩大。我们没有发现按种族存在差异化可用性的统计显著证据。为量化这些选择性收治做法的影响，我们将审计研究结果嵌入一个受约束的养老院选择模型。我们估计，如果反事实地让 Medicaid 患者拥有与自费患者相同的选择集，他们平均会入住质量更高的养老院，但自费—Medicaid 质量差距只会缩小 5-10%。我们的结果表明，按支付方划分的供给侧可用性差异普遍存在，但它们不太可能是所观察到的养老院护理质量差距的主要因素。
Global Entrepreneurial Talent Flows: Widely Funded, Selectively Successful?
全球创业人才流动：融资广泛，成功有选择性？
Abstract
Immigrant founders of US venture-backed startups exit successfully more often than native founders. Does this hold worldwide? Using career histories for 913,226 founder-firm pairs in 213 countries (1990–2026), we compare founders who build abroad (expats) or return home after foreign experience (returnees) with comparable local founders in the same country. Both expats and returnees raise early funding more often globally. Expats' success premium, however, concentrates in the US (18 percent) and UK (26 percent), especially among those entering the US through graduate school, work, or direct founding. Returnees rarely show such a premium. Capital follows mobile founders across borders, but success follows them selectively.
中文摘要
美国风险投资支持的初创企业中，移民创始人的成功退出频率高于本土创始人。这是否在全球范围内成立？使用 213 个国家（1990–2026）913,226 个创始人—企业配对的职业经历，我们将海外创业（外派者）或在海外经历后回国（归国者）的创始人与同一国家中可比的本土创始人进行比较。在全球范围内，外派者和归国者都更常获得早期融资。然而，外派者的成功溢价集中在美国（18%）和英国（26%），尤其是在通过研究生院、工作或直接创业进入美国的人群中。归国者很少表现出这种溢价。资本会跨境追随流动创始人，但成功只会选择性地追随他们。
Comparative Advantage and Economies of Scale under Uncertainty
不确定性下的比较优势与规模经济
Abstract
We study how regional specialization patterns and welfare are affected by uncertainty and economies of scale in an open economy. We use a spatial equilibrium model with sectoral economies of scale, aggregate uncertainty, and irreversible mobility decisions made by heterogenous workers. We analytically characterize how the interactions between comparative advantage, both of workers and firms, economies of scale, and uncertainty shape specialization patterns and, hence, the gains from trade. We find empirical support for the model predictions by documenting the impact of aggregate changes in volatility of sectoral productivity on U.S. regional economies. We calibrate the model using detailed data on U.S. commuting zones and international trade, and extending hat-algebra methods to accommodate uncertainty. Quantitatively, we find that uncertainty shifts employment away from riskier sectors and locations, relative to a deterministic benchmark, lowering the U.S. aggregate gains from trade by around 20 percent. The interaction between uncertainty and scale economies brings down the benefits of specialization. For regions that would otherwise lose from trade, the presence of agglomeration forces and a more elastic labor supply mitigates those losses.
中文摘要
我们研究开放经济中不确定性和规模经济如何影响区域专业化模式与福利。我们使用一个空间均衡模型，其中包含部门规模经济、总体不确定性，以及异质性工人做出的不可逆迁移决策。我们解析地刻画了工人和企业的比较优势、规模经济与不确定性之间的相互作用如何塑造专业化模式，进而塑造贸易收益。通过记录部门生产率波动性的总体变化对美国区域经济的影响，我们找到了支持模型预测的经验证据。我们使用美国通勤区和国际贸易的详细数据校准模型，并扩展hat-algebra方法以纳入不确定性。在定量上，我们发现，相对于确定性基准，不确定性使就业从风险更高的部门和地点转移出去，使美国总体贸易收益降低约20%。不确定性与规模经济之间的相互作用降低了专业化的收益。对于原本会从贸易中受损的地区，集聚力量的存在和更富弹性的劳动供给缓解了这些损失。
The Returns to Temporary Migration: Experimental Evidence from the H-2A Program
临时迁移的回报：来自H-2A项目的实验证据
Abstract
In 2024, 315,000 H-2A temporary seasonal work visas were issued to agricultural workers in the US. The H-2A program is controversial: earnings are high, but critics argue that workers face poor working and living conditions and that families bear the costs of separation. We randomize H-2A seasonal visas for Mexican workers. During a single US season, migrants earn more than USD 16,000 and send 70% of these earnings to origin households. Living standards in Mexico rise: food security increases, the probability of living in poverty falls by 10 percentage points, and families invest in home improvements, durable assets, and debt reduction, with little investment in businesses or productive assets. Migration has spillovers onto the household: the mental health of household respondents worsens and they avoid higher-risk situations such as walking at night, and intra-household dynamics change. Migrants generally report satisfaction with H-2A jobs and contracts, all report that they would migrate again, and 85% do so the following season.
中文摘要
2024年，美国向农业工人发放了315,000份H-2A临时季节性工作签证。H-2A项目存在争议：收入很高，但批评者认为工人面临恶劣的工作和生活条件，且家庭承担分离的成本。我们为墨西哥工人随机分配H-2A季节性签证。在单个美国季节期间，移民收入超过16,000美元，并将其中70%的收入的汇回原籍家庭。墨西哥的生活水平上升：粮食安全提高，生活在贫困中的概率下降10个百分点，家庭投资于住房改善、耐用资产和债务削减，但对生意或生产性资产的投资很少。迁移对家庭产生溢出效应：家庭受访者的心理健康恶化，他们回避夜间行走等风险更高的情境，家庭内部动态也发生变化。移民普遍报告对H-2A工作和合同感到满意，所有人都报告他们会再次迁移，85%的人在下一个季节确实这样做了。
Sex and Subsistence: Income Effects on Risky Sexual Behavior and Partner Selection
性与生计：收入对危险性行为和伴侣选择的影响
Abstract
Whether to engage in sex and with whom are extremely consequential decisions for young women worldwide, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV rates are high and adolescent pregnancies are common. Yet little is known about the extent to which these decisions are financially motivated. We combine a randomized controlled trial of monthly cash assistance to female students at the University of Zambia with detailed, high-frequency data on sexual behavior and partner characteristics. We find that this temporary increase in income significantly changes women's sexual behavior. Treated participants are 5.1 percentage points less likely to have sex during the treatment period, and the rate of condomless sex falls by 30%. Among women who were not sexually active at baseline, the likelihood of having sex falls by 43%, and partner quality conditional on sex greatly improves. Financial assistance also reduces financial precarity, increasing food security, mental health, and cognitive capacity. These results can be rationalized with a dynamic model of partner search in which women can choose to search for boyfriends or high-income partners who provide financial support and bargain over both transfers and condom use. We conclude that a substantial share of sexual activity is financially motivated in this setting, even in a population not typically regarded as vulnerable. Increasing young women's income may be a useful tool for reducing the negative externalities of risky sex and improving match quality.
中文摘要
是否发生性行为以及与谁发生性行为，对全球年轻女性而言是极其重要的决定，尤其是在HIV感染率高且青少年怀孕常见的撒哈拉以南非洲。然而，人们对这些决定在多大程度上出于经济动机知之甚少。我们将一项向赞比亚大学女学生每月提供现金援助的随机对照试验，与关于性行为和伴侣特征的详细高频数据相结合。我们发现，这种收入的暂时增加显著改变了女性的性行为。处理组参与者在处理期间发生性行为的可能性低5.1个百分点，无安全套性行为的发生率下降30%。在基线时没有性行为的女性中，发生性行为的可能性下降43%，且在发生性行为的条件下伴侣质量大幅提高。经济援助还减少了财务不稳定，提高了粮食安全、心理健康和认知能力。这些结果可以用一个动态伴侣搜寻模型来解释：女性可以选择寻找提供经济支持的男友或高收入伴侣，并就转移支付和安全套使用进行议价。我们得出结论：在这一情境中，相当大比例的性行为出于经济动机，即使在一个通常不被视为脆弱的人群中也是如此。提高年轻女性的收入可能是减少危险性行为负外部性和改善匹配质量的有用工具。
Gender Gaps: International Evidence on the Role of Family Policy
性别差距：家庭政策作用的国际证据
Abstract
We use Luxembourg Income Study and International Social Survey Programme microdata on 27 countries over the 1986-2019 period, augmented by policy and labor market information, to estimate the impact of family-friendly policies on gender gaps in employment, wages, earnings, and part-time work, as well as child penalties in employment and earnings. We find that longer duration of parental leave generally lowers gender gaps in wages, employment, earnings, and child penalties in employment and earnings, except for high levels of this entitlement, where further increases in leave raise gender gaps. We also find that the right to request a part-time work schedule raises relative female part-time employment but lowers employment and earnings gender gaps. Higher government expenditures for childcare lower employment, earnings, and part-time employment gender gaps as well as child employment and earnings penalties. These results are generally stronger for the less educated than for the highly educated, possibly reflecting higher costs of taking time off for highly educated women. Finally, expansion of family-friendly policies over this period can account for 24-33% of our sample’s reduction in gender gaps in employment and earnings and 46-76% of the reduction in child penalties in these outcomes. The slower expansion of such policies in the United States than elsewhere accounts for 6-15% of the slower reduction in US gender employment and earnings gaps and 20% of the slower fall in the US child employment penalty.
中文摘要
我们使用卢森堡收入研究和国际社会调查项目关于27个国家在1986-2019年期间的微观数据，并辅以政策和劳动力市场信息，估计家庭友好政策对就业、工资、收入和兼职工作中的性别差距，以及就业和收入中的子女惩罚的影响。我们发现，更长的育儿假期限总体上降低了工资、就业、收入中的性别差距以及就业和收入中的子女惩罚，但在该权利水平很高时除外——此时进一步增加假期会扩大性别差距。我们还发现，申请兼职工作安排的权利提高了女性相对兼职就业，但降低了就业和收入性别差距。更高的政府儿童保育支出降低了就业、收入和兼职就业性别差距，以及子女就业和收入惩罚。这些结果在受教育程度较低者中通常强于受教育程度较高者，这可能反映了受教育程度较高的女性休假的成本更高。最后，这一时期家庭友好政策的扩张可以解释我们样本中就业和收入性别差距缩小的24-33%，以及这些结果中子女惩罚缩小的46-76%。美国此类政策扩张慢于其他地方，这解释了美国性别就业和收入差距缩小较慢的6-15%，以及美国子女就业惩罚下降较慢的20%。
Optimal Taxation of Indistinguishable Activities
不可区分活动的最优征税
Abstract
Optimal tax policy frequently prescribes different tax treatments for activities that are difficult in practice for tax administrators to distinguish, such as expenditures undertaken for business versus personal purposes. We study the optimal design of income tax deductions for such expenditures under the assumption that a common deduction rate must be applied to both forms of the expenditure. The Pareto optimal common deduction turns on the relative compensated spending response for each margin, weighted by the income tax wedge. We also characterize the welfare gain from distinguishing between the two expenditure forms as a harmonic mean of the compensated responses. We illustrate both results with an application to air travel expenses.
中文摘要
最优税收政策经常对税务管理者在实践中难以区分的活动规定不同的税收待遇，例如为商业目的与个人目的发生的支出。我们研究在此类支出上所得税扣除的最优设计，假设必须对两种形式的支出适用共同的扣除率。帕累托最优的共同扣除取决于每一边际的相对补偿性支出反应，并以所得税楔子加权。我们还刻画了区分两种支出形式所带来的福利收益，其等于补偿性反应的调和平均数。我们用航空旅行支出的应用来说明这两个结果。
Regional Variations and Productivity Puzzles in Health Care
医疗保健中的地区差异与生产率之谜
Abstract
Health care utilization per capita varies widely across the United States, yet higher utilization areas have no better patient health. In the late 2000s, this pattern was widely interpreted as evidence that health care costs could be cut substantially without harming patients, which in turn shaped the 2010 Affordable Care Act. We describe how our understanding has since evolved, emphasizing three points. First, new evidence indicates quantitatively meaningful roles for both supply-side and demand-side factors in driving regional variation in health care and in health outcomes. Second, health care productivity varies substantially across providers; improving it requires better understanding of why productivity differs. Third, we know even less about the sources of area-level productivity differences. We suggest several ways in which greater engagement with the productivity literature outside of health care could yield valuable insights.
中文摘要
美国各地的人均医疗保健利用差异很大，但利用率较高的地区患者健康状况并没有更好。在2000年代后期，这一模式被广泛解读为医疗保健成本可以大幅削减而不损害患者的证据，进而影响了2010年《平价医疗法案》。我们描述了我们理解此后如何演变，强调三点。第一，新证据表明供给侧和需求侧因素在驱动医疗保健和健康结果的地区差异方面都具有数量上显著的作用。第二，医疗保健生产率在不同提供者之间差异很大；提高生产率需要更好地理解生产率为何不同。第三，我们对地区层面生产率差异的来源了解更少。我们提出若干方式，通过与医疗保健之外的生产率文献更深入接触，可以产生有价值的洞见。
Representation, Innovation, and Product Adoption
代表性、创新与产品采用
Abstract
During research and development, firms must decide which types of individuals to engage in developing and testing their products. We investigate how lowering the cost of including one group shapes its representation, subsequent innovation, and product adoption. In 2000, Medicare expanded coverage of clinical trial costs for elderly trial participants, a historically underrepresented group in drug development. This policy increases representation: trial sponsors expand trial eligibility to include elderly participants and increase the share of elderly participants. We find an immediate and large increase in the number of clinical trials for diseases common among the elderly, with the largest increase in drugs not yet approved and in approved drugs tested in new diseases. We document an increase in drug utilization of newly tested drugs among elderly individuals and analyze trial results, adverse events, and drug approvals. Our findings show how financial incentives can increase representation in product development and shift the rate, direction, and adoption of innovation to potentially benefit underserved groups.
中文摘要
在研发过程中，企业必须决定让哪些类型的个体参与其产品的开发和测试。我们研究了降低纳入某一群体的成本如何影响该群体的代表性、后续创新和产品采用。2000年，Medicare扩大了针对老年试验参与者的临床试验费用覆盖范围，而老年人在药物开发中历来代表性不足。该政策提高了代表性：试验申办方扩大试验资格以纳入老年参与者，并提高了老年参与者的比例。我们发现，针对老年人常见疾病的临床试验数量立即大幅增加，其中增幅最大的是尚未获批的药物以及在新疾病中测试的已获批药物。我们记录了老年人对新测试药物的使用增加，并分析了试验结果、不良事件和药物审批。我们的研究结果表明，财务激励如何能够提高产品开发中的代表性，并改变创新的速度、方向与采用，从而可能使服务不足的群体受益。
Implications of Policy Interventions on Eliminating Gender Gaps
消除性别差距的政策干预的影响
Abstract
This paper studies policy interventions intended to eliminate gender differences in labor market outcomes, principally wages. Because gender is an individual attribute rather than a manipulable treatment, the ideal experiment of randomly assigning gender to evaluate its effects is infeasible. Policies that remove gender labels from the employment process are the closest feasible counterpart. We quantify both the intended and unintended consequences of the policies through simulated interventions of an estimated equilibrium model of statistical discrimination with dynamic choices of education and labor market participation. In the short run the policy that requires gender free applications in the market for skilled labor eliminates wage gaps but once education choices respond the effects are attenuated. A more comprehensive policy that enforces gender free compensation reverses the wage gap in skilled markets and eliminates it in unskilled labor markets, even once education adjusts. These interventions impact college rates, the college premium gap and participation rates as well. The final section studies these interventions using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to analyze the simulated data. With education fixed, the DID method recovers the policy effects but this is not the case once education adjusts, reflecting the effects of the intervention on both treated and control groups through equilibrium adjustments in beliefs.
中文摘要
本文研究了旨在消除劳动力市场结果（主要是工资）中性别差异的政策干预。由于性别是个体属性而非可操纵的处理，随机分配性别以评估其影响的理想实验不可行。从就业过程中移除性别标签的政策是最接近的可行对应方案。我们通过一个估计的统计歧视均衡模型（包含教育和劳动力市场参与的动态选择）进行模拟干预，量化了这些政策的预期和非预期后果。短期内，要求技能劳动力市场申请中不出现性别的政策消除了工资差距，但一旦教育选择作出反应，效果就会被削弱。一项更全面的政策，即强制实行无性别薪酬，即使在教育调整之后，也能逆转技能市场中的工资差距，并在非技能劳动力市场中消除该差距。这些干预措施还影响大学入学率、大学溢价差距和参与率。最后一部分使用双重差分（DID）方法分析模拟数据来研究这些干预措施。在教育固定的情况下，DID方法能够恢复政策效应，但一旦教育进行调整，情况就不再如此，这反映了干预通过信念的均衡调整对处理组和对照组都产生了影响。
Tax Productivity and Economic Development: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis
税收生产率与经济发展：一项定量宏观经济分析
Abstract
This paper examines the role of government capacity to collect taxes in driving economic development. We first draw on a new macro-historical database to document that tax collections relative to tax administration expenditures rise sharply with GDP per capita. We then interpret this finding in a neoclassical growth model with a tax administration sector in which labor inputs are required to raise tax revenues. Countries differ in their levels of tax productivity, capturing how effectively labor is used to raise taxes, as well as their levels of productivity in creating consumption and investment goods. Governments use tax revenues to provide public capital that complements private factors in production and to make transfers. Quantitatively, our model predicts that increases in tax productivity in low-income economies can raise GDP per capita substantially more than suggested by Hulten’s theorem.
中文摘要
本文考察政府征税能力在推动经济发展中的作用。我们首先利用一个新的宏观历史数据库记录了一个事实：税收收入相对于税收管理支出的比率随人均GDP急剧上升。然后，我们在一个包含税收管理部门的新古典增长模型中解释这一发现，该部门需要劳动投入来提高税收收入。各国在税收生产率水平（反映劳动用于征税的有效程度）以及生产消费品和投资品的生产率水平上存在差异。政府利用税收收入提供公共资本（在生产中与私人要素互补）并进行转移支付。在定量上，我们的模型预测，低收入经济体税收生产率的提高可以大幅提升人均GDP，其幅度远大于Hulten定理所暗示的水平。
Losing Their Religion
失去他们的宗教
Abstract
This paper studies whether governments can change social norms that constrain women’s education and work, and through which mechanism. Albania’s 1967 religion ban, which created the world’s first atheist state, provides an extreme natural experiment: religious practice was outlawed nationwide, but a 1948 classification of historic monuments determined which religious buildings remained standing. We find larger increases in female employment and schooling where no monument survived. The public visibility of the old religious order appears to be the mechanism: effects are largest where no monument remained, smaller with rural-only monuments, and smallest with urban monuments; they also decline as monument count rises, regardless of denomination. We establish how social norms can outlive formal authority.
中文摘要
本文研究政府能否改变约束女性教育和工作的社会规范，以及通过何种机制。阿尔巴尼亚1967年的宗教禁令创造了世界上第一个无神论国家，提供了一个极端的自然实验：宗教活动在全国范围内被取缔，但1948年对历史遗迹的分类决定了哪些宗教建筑得以保留。我们发现，在没有遗迹留存的地方，女性就业和 schooling 的增长更大。旧宗教秩序的公共可见性似乎是机制所在：在没有遗迹留存的地方效应最大，仅有农村遗迹时效应较小，有城市遗迹时效应最小；无论教派如何，效应也随着遗迹数量的增加而下降。我们确立了社会规范如何能够比正式权威更长久地存在。
Insuring Landlords
为房东提供保险
Abstract
This paper shows that insuring landlords against non-payment risk can improve housing access and upward geographic mobility for fragile tenants. We study Visale, a large-scale publicly funded rent guarantee insurance policy in France, free for eligible tenants and landlords. Using administrative household and claim payout data and quasi-experimental eligibility variation by exact age, we show the guarantee increased access to private-sector rental housing, especially for immigrants, newly formed households, and low-income renters. The scheme eased long-distance mobility toward expensive, high-wage neighborhoods at a moderate fiscal cost per marginal move, though potentially displacing comparable ineligible tenants through higher rents.
中文摘要
本文表明，为房东提供针对欠租风险的保险可以改善脆弱租户的住房获取和向上地理流动性。我们研究了Visale，这是一项法国大规模公共资助的租金担保保险政策，对符合条件的租户和房东免费。利用行政家庭和理赔支付数据以及按确切年龄的准实验资格变化，我们表明该担保增加了私营部门租赁住房的获取，尤其是对移民、新组建家庭和低收入租户。该计划以每边际迁移适度的财政成本，促进了向昂贵、高工资社区的长距离流动，尽管可能通过提高租金而挤走条件相当的不符合资格租户。
We Just Created More Than 1,000 Synthetic Controls To Study California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage
我们刚刚创建了超过1,000个合成控制组来研究加州20美元快餐最低工资
Abstract
Synthetic control methods hold the promise of identifying a credible counterfactual by closely reproducing pretreatment outcome paths. Their reliability, however, depends in part on how effectively they constrain researchers’ less-visible degrees of freedom. We explore these methods’ sensitivity by constructing 1440 plausibly defensible specifications to estimate the employment effect of California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage. While over 96 percent of the estimated employment effects are negative, the range is vast, illustrating that synthetic control methods are sensitive to specification choice. Estimates from simpler and far more transparent difference-in-differences methods lie near the centers of the comparable distributions of synthetic control estimates. The labor market effects of California's AB 1228 are also analyzed, with varied conclusions, in both the initial and revised version of NBER working paper 34033 and in working paper 35171 .
中文摘要
合成控制方法有望通过紧密再现处理前结果路径来识别可信的反事实。然而，其可靠性部分取决于它们如何有效地约束研究人员不太可见的自由度。我们通过构建1440个看似合理的可辩护设定来估计加州20美元快餐最低工资的就业效应，从而探索这些方法的敏感性。虽然超过96%的估计就业效应为负，但范围巨大，说明合成控制方法对设定选择敏感。来自更简单且透明得多的双重差分方法的估计值位于合成控制估计值可比分布的中心附近。加州AB 1228的劳动力市场效应也在NBER工作论文34033的初始版本和修订版本以及工作论文35171中进行了分析，结论各异。
College Success: Understanding the Roles of Financial Aid, Loans, Preparation, and Incentives
大学成功：理解经济援助、贷款、准备和激励的作用
Abstract
Over the past four decades, the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates has widened substantially, prompting interest in policies aimed at promoting higher education among low-income students. A key challenge for these policies is the high college dropout rate. This paper develops a dynamic model of college enrollment and completion with rich individual heterogeneity to assess how various factors influence college attendance, dropout, and graduation. We estimate the model using data from longitudinal surveys, results of quasi-experimental studies on grant aid, and large-scale randomized controlled trials. We use the model to simulate the effects of tuition subsidies, college loans, financial incentives, and increased pre-college skills on attendance and completion. We find moderate effects of most unconditional financial policies on attendance, with small effects on completion conditional on attendance. By contrast, some merit-based incentives, such as forgiving student loans upon receipt of a bachelor’s degree, have substantial effects. However, this type of policy and other financial subsidies accrue even more than the others to students from relatively wealthy backgrounds. Overall, it appears infeasible to design a financial aid policy that is simultaneously effective in raising attainment and fiscally progressive. By comparison, we find that the greatest potential for increasing attainment could come from better preparing students for college.
中文摘要
在过去四十年中，大学毕业生与非毕业生之间的收入差距大幅扩大，这引发了人们对旨在促进低收入学生接受高等教育的政策的兴趣。这些政策面临的一个关键挑战是高大学辍学率。本文建立了一个包含丰富个体异质性的大学入学和完成学业的动态模型，以评估各种因素如何影响大学入学、辍学和毕业。我们使用纵向调查数据、关于助学金准实验研究的结果以及大规模随机对照试验来估计该模型。我们使用该模型模拟学费补贴、大学贷款、经济激励和增加大学前技能对入学和完成学业的影响。我们发现大多数无条件财政政策对入学有中等影响，而对以入学为条件的完成学业影响较小。相比之下，一些基于成绩的激励措施，例如在获得学士学位时免除学生贷款，具有显著影响。然而，与其他政策相比，这类政策和其他财政补贴更多地惠及来自相对富裕背景的学生。总体而言，设计一项既能有效提高受教育程度又在财政上具有累进性的经济援助政策似乎不可行。相比之下，我们发现提高受教育程度的最大潜力可能来自更好地帮助学生为大学做好准备。
The Occupational Ladder: Implications for Life-Cycle Wage Dynamics
职业阶梯：对生命周期工资动态的影响
Abstract
Some occupations pay higher wages than others, even conditional on worker characteristics, implying that occupations can be ranked on a ladder. We develop a simple decomposition to study the role this occupational ladder plays in average wage growth and in the fanning out of wages over the life cycle. We present three main findings. First, the distribution of employment shifts towards higher-paying occupations as workers gain experience. This contributes modestly to average life-cycle wage growth, with greatest impact in early career. Second, this upward movement in the occupational employment distribution is not accompanied by increasing dispersion; thus, the occupational ladder does not directly contribute to the fanning out of wages. Third, early-career workers who are well-positioned on the occupational ladder tend to earn wages far below the occupational average. However, by mid-career, workers’ relative wages within occupations (their positions on the job ladder) no longer depend on their occupation. This change in the covariance between individuals’ positions on the job and occupational ladders is a major contributor to the fanning out of wages over workers’ careers.
中文摘要
即使以工人特征为条件，一些职业的工资也高于其他职业，这意味着职业可以按阶梯排序。我们开发了一个简单的分解方法，以研究这种职业阶梯在平均工资增长和生命周期工资分化中的作用。我们提出三个主要发现。第一，随着工人获得经验，就业分布向更高薪职业转移。这对平均生命周期工资增长贡献不大，但在职业生涯早期影响最大。第二，职业就业分布的向上移动并未伴随离散度的增加；因此，职业阶梯并不直接导致工资分化。第三，在职业阶梯上处于有利位置的早期职业工人往往挣得的工资远低于职业平均水平。然而，到职业生涯中期，工人在职业内的相对工资（他们在工作阶梯上的位置）不再取决于其职业。个体在工作阶梯和职业阶梯上的位置之间协方差的这种变化，是工人职业生涯中工资分化的主要贡献因素。
Strategic Monetary Policy in Open Economies
开放经济中的战略货币政策
Abstract
We examine optimal non-cooperative monetary policy in a two-country New Keynesian setting with complete financial markets and pricing to market for goods. In contrast to the case in which the law of one price holds for goods, currency misalignments are an important consideration even for self-oriented policymakers. Financial markets are critical in the analysis. Under “full” commitment, the optimal policy considers the effects on asset values and hence wealth distribution across countries. Optimal policy under full commitment differs from the “partial” commitment case in which the policy commitment is not made until after asset markets clear. Surprisingly, the optimal targeting rule under strategic policy with full commitment is the same as under cooperative policy. In this setting, changes in state-contingent claim prices offset the wealth a self-oriented policymaker might seek through terms-of-trade manipulation, and we show that there are no gains from cooperation. Although a policy chosen under partial commitment may be desirable from a country’s perspective, the resulting Nash equilibrium yields lower welfare.
中文摘要
我们在一个具有完全金融市场和商品按市场定价的两国新凯恩斯主义框架中考察最优非合作货币政策。与商品一价定律成立的情形相比，即使对自利型政策制定者而言，货币错配也是一个重要考虑因素。金融市场在分析中至关重要。在“完全”承诺下，最优政策考虑对资产价值的影响，从而考虑跨国财富分配的影响。完全承诺下的最优政策不同于“部分”承诺情形，后者直到资产市场出清后才做出政策承诺。令人惊讶的是，完全承诺下战略政策的最优目标规则与合作政策下相同。在这种设定下，状态依存索取权价格的变化抵消了自利型政策制定者可能通过贸易条件操纵寻求的财富，并且我们表明合作没有收益。尽管从一国角度看，部分承诺下选择的政策可能是合意的，但由此产生的纳什均衡带来较低的福利。
HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior
HouseholdBench：评估大型语言模型作为家庭经济行为预测器
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to meet a key goal in economics: a quantitative model of household decision making, across a variety of settings. Yet existing evaluations cover few surveys and outcomes, and do not study how households adjust to changing economic conditions. We introduce a new evaluation, HouseholdBench, which unites 6 U.S. household surveys and 32 prediction tasks spanning numeric, categorical and probabilistic outcomes, related to consumption, income, labor, expectations, and housing. Using past behavior, demographics and macroeconomic conditions, the tasks test whether LLMs predict behavior, including how households adjust to changes in various policies. We evaluate 13 proprietary and open-weight LLMs against a no-change baseline and a gradient boosted tree model. Most LLMs outperform the no-change baseline, including for policy response tasks—with the best model lowering error for numeric outcomes by 12.2%. Across most tasks, gradient-boosted trees rank first; leading proprietary LLMs approach their performance, but open-weight models lag. LLMs exhibit systematic over- and underprediction across different tasks. We identify methods that enable a 4 billion parameter open-weight model to match proprietary models’ performance: fine-tuning and aggregating 16 predictions per observation. Improvements generalize to policy-response tasks, which are excluded from fine-tuning. We release our datasets, code, and leaderboard on our website.
中文摘要
大型语言模型（LLM）有潜力实现经济学的一个关键目标：一个适用于各种情境的家庭决策定量模型。然而，现有评估仅涵盖少数调查和结果，且未研究家庭如何适应变化的经济状况。我们引入一项新的评估——HouseholdBench，它整合了6项美国家庭调查和32项预测任务，涵盖数值、分类和概率结果，涉及消费、收入、劳动、预期和住房。利用过去行为、人口统计特征和宏观经济状况，这些任务检验LLM是否能预测行为，包括家庭如何适应各种政策变化。我们评估了13个专有和开放权重LLM，并与无变化基线和梯度提升树模型进行比较。大多数LLM优于无变化基线，包括在政策响应任务上——最佳模型将数值结果的误差降低了12.2%。在大多数任务上，梯度提升树排名第一；领先的专有LLM接近其表现，但开放权重模型落后。LLM在不同任务上表现出系统性的高估和低估。我们识别出使一个40亿参数开放权重模型达到专有模型表现的方法：微调并对每个观测聚合16个预测。改进可推广到政策响应任务，而这些任务被排除在微调之外。我们在网站上发布数据集、代码和排行榜。
Beliefs Over Contracts
关于合同的信念
Abstract
We study how firms choose among incentive contracts and how accurately managers predict their effects. Using a survey of managerial beliefs and a large-scale field experiment, we randomly assign agents at the market level to several widely used, expenditure-equivalent incentive schemes. In the field, the best-performing contract raises weekly firm profit by over 55% relative to the status quo, despite being ranked lower by managers, whereas the worst-performing contract performs as predicted. Managers reliably avoid poorly performing contracts but systematically underestimate top-performing ones. Standard contract theory does better as a forecaster here: an unbiased textbook principal orders the contracts correctly, or very nearly so, correctly identifying the profit leader where managers do not; where it does miss, the error is similar to managers’ and for a similar reason. We show that the performance differences across contracts reflect a mix of labor-supply and risk responses, and that managerial predictability varies with contract complexity and managerial hierarchy. Our results highlight the importance of contract design for firm performance and reveal systematic limits to managerial cognition in shaping incentives.
中文摘要
我们研究企业如何在激励合同之间进行选择，以及管理者对其效果的预测有多准确。利用一项管理者信念调查和一项大规模实地实验，我们在市场层面将代理人随机分配到几种广泛使用、支出等价的激励方案中。在实地中，表现最好的合同使企业每周利润相对于现状提高超过55%，尽管管理者对其排名较低，而表现最差的合同表现如预测。管理者可靠地避开表现不佳的合同，但系统性地低估表现最好的合同。标准合同理论在这里作为预测器表现更好：一个无偏的教科书式委托人正确或非常接近正确地排列合同，正确识别出利润领先者，而管理者则不能；在出错之处，错误与管理者相似，原因也相似。我们表明，合同之间的表现差异反映了劳动供给和风险反应的混合，并且管理者的可预测性随合同复杂性和管理层级而变化。我们的结果凸显了合同设计对企业绩效的重要性，并揭示了管理者认知在塑造激励方面的系统性局限。