Behavioral Finance at 40
行为金融学40年
Abstract
Behavioral finance seeks to improve our understanding of markets, investors, and firms by adopting a psychologically realistic description of how people think. While behavioral finance ideas have been part of human discourse for decades if not centuries, the modern research effort in the field began in the 1980s. Forty years later, behavioral finance is a vibrant area of financial economics. In this article, I explain why by reviewing some of its recent progress. I focus on three topics – beliefs about future earnings, beliefs about future returns, and prospect theory – and on their applications to understanding asset prices and investor behavior. I close by commenting on some new directions in the field – cognitive foundations, non-traditional decision processes, and artificial intelligence.
中文摘要
行为金融学旨在通过采用对人们思考方式的心理现实主义描述，来增进我们对市场、投资者和企业的理解。尽管行为金融学的思想作为人类话语的一部分已存在数十年甚至数百年，但该领域现代研究的努力始于1980年代。四十年后，行为金融学已成为金融经济学中一个充满活力的领域。在本文中，我通过回顾其近期的一些进展来解释原因。我聚焦于三个主题——对未来盈利的信念、对未来回报的信念以及前景理论——及其在理解资产价格和投资者行为方面的应用。最后，我评论了该领域的一些新方向——认知基础、非传统决策过程以及人工智能。